MP Materials stock is riding high after a massive $500M Apple deal and a DoD partnership. But with wild price swings and bearish analyst calls, is now the time to jump in or cash out? Uncover the truth behind MP stock’s meteoric rise!

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MP Materials Stock Surges with Apple and DoD Deals—Buy, Hold, or Sell?

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP), the only fully integrated rare earth mining company in the U.S., has captured investor attention with a 19.95% stock price surge on July 15, 2025, closing at $58.22 after swinging between $52.90 and $62.87. Fueled by a $500 million partnership with Apple for rare earth magnets and a multibillion-dollar Department of Defense (DoD) investment, MP is positioning itself as a key player in technology and national security. However, with high volatility and mixed analyst signals, should investors dive in, hold steady, or sell? Here’s an original analysis of MP Materials’ stock outlook.

Explosive Growth and Market Momentum

Since June 4, 2025, MP Materials stock has soared 136.86%, delivering an average daily return of 4.89%. Over the past two weeks, it gained 75%, with 71 million shares traded on July 15, valued at roughly $4.12 billion. The stock is just 7.4% ($4.65) below its 52-week high of $62.87, which also marks its all-time peak. Despite this rally, the stock’s 18.85% daily volatility and 11.83% weekly volatility signal significant risk.

Strategic Partnerships Driving the Rally

MP’s recent surge is tied to two major developments:

1. Apple Partnership: A $500 million multiyear agreement to supply rare earth magnets for Apple products, starting in 2027 at MP’s Texas facility. This deal strengthens MP’s role in domestic supply chains for tech components.
2. DoD Investment: A multibillion-dollar partnership with the DoD, including a 10-year price floor for rare earth products and magnet purchases from MP’s new “10X” facility. The DoD’s stake makes it MP’s largest shareholder, boosting its national security relevance.

These partnerships align with global trends toward clean energy and reduced reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, positioning MP for long-term growth.

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals

Technical indicators present a mixed picture:

• Buy Signals: Short- and long-term moving averages favor a bullish outlook, with the short-term average above the long-term average, signaling positive momentum. A pivot bottom buy signal from May 27, 2025, has driven a 210.18% gain since then.
• Sell Signals: The three-month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a bearish trend, suggesting potential short-term declines.
• Support Levels: Key support exists at $48.52, $45.23, and $45.11. A break below $48.52 could trigger sell signals.
• Stop Loss: A recommended stop loss is set at $56.24 (3.4% below the current price).

Analyst Sentiment and Fundamentals

Analysts remain cautious, assigning MP Materials a strong sell rating based on its negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (due to ongoing losses) and price-to-book (P/B) ratio. Recent reports include:

• Capital: Market perform, hold recommendation (March 20, 2025, and September 30, 2024).
• Deutsche Bank: Market perform, hold recommendation (October 21, 2024, and September 19, 2024).
• Canaccord Genuity: Underperform, hold recommendation (October 21, 2024).

The company’s market capitalization stands at $7.93 billion. The upcoming earnings report on August 7, 2025, is expected to show an EPS of -$0.16, with full-year 2025 projections at -$0.64. However, analysts forecast a potential EPS of $0.30 by 2027, hinting at a profitability turnaround.

Insider Trading Trends

Insider activity leans bearish, with a negative insider power ratio of -79.062. In the last 100 trades, insiders sold 6,159,885 shares while purchasing 94,958 shares. Notable transactions include:

• Elliot Dean Hoops (General Counsel): Sold 5,523 shares on June 26, 2025, at $36.37 ($200,871) and 3,937 shares on July 1, 2025.
• Maryanne Lavin (Director): Bought 845 shares on June 30, 2025.
• Connie K. Duckworth (Director): Bought 9,001 shares on June 30, 2025.

These sales, part of a pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, may reflect profit-taking rather than a lack of confidence, but the heavy selling volume raises eyebrows.

Market Context and Risks

The broader market in July 2025 is volatile, driven by trade tensions and tariff policies under President Donald Trump. MP’s beta of 0.42 suggests lower market-correlated volatility, but its 27.14% annual volatility underscores significant price swings. Key risks include:

• Negative Earnings: A negative P/E ratio reflects ongoing losses, with potential bankruptcy risks if unaddressed.
• High Volatility: Daily fluctuations of up to 18.85% make MP a high-risk investment.
• Support Breach: A drop below $48.52 could lead to further declines toward $45.23 or $45.11.

Price Outlook

Analysts project a 3-month price change of 47.82%, with a range of -26.04% to 47.82%, and a 12-month price range of $47.37 to $77.14 (a potential 122.39% increase). With no significant resistance above the current price, upward momentum is possible if positive catalysts persist. However, the stock’s overvaluation and bearish analyst ratings suggest caution.

Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell?

MP Materials is currently rated a hold or accumulate due to its strong partnerships but high volatility and negative fundamentals. The Apple and DoD deals position MP for long-term growth in the rare earth sector, critical for clean energy and technology. However, negative earnings, insider selling, and a bearish MACD signal advise against aggressive buying. Investors may consider holding positions or accumulating on dips near support levels like $48.52, but a stop loss at $56.24 is recommended to manage risk.

MP Materials Stock Performance Table

Metric	Value
Current Price (Jul 15, 2025)	$58.22
52-Week High	$62.87
52-Week Low	$10.02
Gain Since Jun 4, 2025	136.86%
2-Week Gain	75%
Daily Volatility (Jul 15)	18.85%
Weekly Volatility	11.83%
Market Cap	$7.93B
P/E Ratio	Negative (Losses)
EPS Forecast (2025)	-$0.64
EPS Forecast (2027)	$0.30
3-Month Price Range	-26.04% to 47.82%
12-Month Price Range	$47.37 to $77.14
Support Levels	$48.52, $45.23, $45.11
Stop Loss	$56.24

FAQ: MP Materials Stock

1. What is the current price of MP Materials stock?
   As of July 15, 2025, the stock closed at $58.22.
2. What caused the recent spike in MP Materials’ stock price?
   A $500M Apple partnership and a multibillion-dollar DoD deal boosted investor confidence, driving a 19.95% gain on July 15, 2025.
3. Is MP Materials a buy, hold, or sell?
   The stock is rated a hold or accumulate due to strong partnerships but high volatility and negative earnings.
4. What are the risks of investing in MP Materials?
   Risks include high volatility (18.85% daily), negative earnings, and potential declines if support levels ($48.52) are breached.
5. When is MP Materials’ next earnings report?
   The Q3 2025 earnings report is scheduled for August 7, 2025, with an expected EPS of -$0.16.
6. What are the analyst price targets for MP Materials?
   The 12-month price target averages $30.50, ranging from $18.00 to $38.00, suggesting possible overvaluation.
7. How does the Apple deal benefit MP Materials?
   The $500M deal ensures a steady revenue stream for rare earth magnets starting in 2027, strengthening MP’s domestic supply chain role.
8. Why is the DoD partnership significant?
   The DoD’s investment and 10-year price floor enhance MP’s financial stability and national security importance.
9. What is MP Materials’ market capitalization?
   The company’s market cap is $7.93 billion as of July 15, 2025.
10. Is MP Materials a good long-term investment?
    The stock has strong long-term potential due to rising rare earth demand, but short-term risks suggest waiting for a better entry point.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in MP Materials (NYSE: MP) carries significant risks due to its high volatility and negative earnings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author and publisher are not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this information.

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